Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 192.539425 229.784835 274.581702 333.131446 408.688011 504.388984 6.372201e+02
2025-09-07 155.966435 203.090072 266.782663 361.830526 504.989494 721.397153 1.092369e+03
2025-09-14 128.108141 176.826022 248.153115 365.244891 563.600634 909.742089 1.624657e+03
2025-09-21 111.548680 161.269822 238.933258 377.065148 636.517002 1153.879972 2.442253e+03
2025-09-28 97.085749 145.381164 224.673307 374.965076 682.336786 1370.347284 3.410538e+03
2025-10-05 91.345578 141.972060 229.660972 407.961141 809.942064 1844.116604 5.697300e+03
2025-10-12 85.680690 137.481988 231.474665 434.960646 937.090811 2417.518181 9.472103e+03
2025-10-19 80.063443 132.026150 230.189060 454.880320 1057.363981 3084.655830 1.567013e+04
2025-10-26 74.408629 125.564408 225.584155 465.922601 1160.368474 3808.520725 2.554127e+04
2025-11-02 68.844818 118.448072 218.300493 468.515415 1241.099819 4551.274019 4.089301e+04
2025-11-09 62.940038 109.895558 206.551614 456.788421 1271.362687 5116.037027 6.039551e+04
2025-11-16 57.836648 102.328572 195.778119 445.040951 1297.460819 5716.260032 9.073271e+04
2025-11-23 53.046620 95.059239 185.045564 432.214712 1320.304760 6395.944392 1.438418e+05
2025-11-30 52.061956 95.518239 192.049087 472.333117 1581.220850 9334.421760 5.162668e+05
2025-12-07 49.094279 91.414251 187.612823 477.113471 1698.285897 11554.929958 1.524991e+06
2025-12-14 47.028937 89.011882 186.927275 493.780908 1888.358144 15335.169396 9.968305e+06
2025-12-21 44.243501 84.705454 180.800077 490.813284 1979.067947 18467.269472 1.107452e+08
2025-12-28 43.804707 85.618329 188.251405 537.607757 2399.472535 29899.350340 NaN
2026-01-04 42.942116 85.446379 192.818497 576.191916 2827.057340 47608.097924 NaN
2026-01-11 41.726662 84.298360 194.522228 604.821741 3234.189507 73949.063447 NaN
2026-01-18 40.178275 82.179074 193.140453 620.750589 3575.028505 109623.478444 NaN
2026-01-25 38.396909 79.310082 189.154030 624.496737 3826.192301 153706.760916 NaN
2026-02-01 36.206679 75.229829 181.026264 607.571294 3869.137738 186518.743102 NaN